Scottish Football's 'New Dawn'?

Stewart Regan has proclaimed a “new dawn” for Scottish Football after an agreement on a proposed merger was reached this week by clubs representing the Scottish Premier League and the Scottish Football League. The merger will the see the restructure of Scottish Football to adopt a 12-12-18 format and will also see the introduction of a pyramid system allowing junior sides entry to the senior leagues. This restructure could well be in place for the start of the 2013-2014 season.

 
There is no doubt that the agreement between the SPL and the SFL is a massive step forward for Scottish football, where the fans have been crying out for change for some time. However, although fans can be encouraged by the progress being made on a reconstruction, the system to be adopted seems to fly in the face of the view held by the majority of fans. Fans have been crying out for an expansion to the top flight from 12 teams to 16 or even 18. In a recent fans survey on the reconstruction of the Scottish game, conducted by the Daily Record, just 16% of fans were in favour of a 12 team top flight backed up with a 12 team second tier. In contrast, over 50% of those surveyed were in favour of a 16 team top flight. A 16 team top flight was also originally proposed by the SFL, with their 16-10-16 approach. This proposal seems to have fallen away though, with the SFL now seemingly backing the SPL’s proposals.
 

In reality, the reconstruction of the league system in Scotland is a delicate balancing act. The precarious financial position of the game dictates that any adopted restructure must deliver an appropriate number of fixtures for each club. Currently, in the top flight, each club plays 38 games with a guaranteed minimum of 18 home games a season. The main argument against a 16 team top league is that it reduces the number of fixtures to 30 a season with only 15 home games. Fans argue that the financial impact of losing 3 home games a season would be offset by an increase in the average crowd due to a reinvigorated league. However, any adopted restructure should also be exciting enough reignite the fans passion for the game and positively impact attendances and interest in Scottish football. After all, any business out there knows it would be suicidal to ignore their customers. So the powers that be face a difficult balancing act between the wishes of their customer and what they believe to be financially viable.
 

The 12-12-18 system that looks likely to be introduced aims to do just that, and it certainly does meet a portion of the required criteria. The number of home games for those in the top 2 divisions remains a guarenteed 18, ensuring no negative financial impact due to reduction in games. It also has plans to add an an element of excitement when the split kicks in. The top 8 in the top flight will form the ‘Super 8’ and challenge for the title. The bottom 4 from top flight join the top 4 from the second flight to form the ‘Playoff 8’ that will decide the Promotion to and Relegation from the top flight and the bottom 8 of the second tier form a ‘National 8’ that battle it out to avoid relegation to the bottom tier. Speaking about the proposed split Stewart Regan says “every single game is important and we all know what play-offs can do for attendances, for commercial partners, and broadcast partners.“ The potential for 4 clubs to gain promotion to the top flight makes entry to Scotland’s elite league more open than ever before and will potentially invigorate clubs in the current Scottish First Division. And of course the introduction of a pyramid structure, allowing junior teams to make the leap into the senior ranks is something that’s long overdue and is certainly a huge step forward for the lower levels of Scottish football.
 

These are all positive points for the 12-12-18 structure. The trouble is, some of these perceived positives are merely theoretical and in no way guaranteed. A more cynical eye cast over the 12-12-18 structure would realise that although 4 promotion places are up for grabs, it is equally as likely that all top flight clubs retain their position for the following season. This is a perfectly plausible possibility. Clubs in the top flight will spend the summer preparing a squad capable of playing top flight football, where as clubs in the lower division will more than likely have a reduced budget and therefore a squad capable of playing second tier football. A disparity in quality or even in squad depth may be evident when these clubs meet in the play-off 8. Let’s not forget these ‘play-offs’ are not one off games, but 14 game mini-seasons. Some would argue that the jump between top and second flight football in Scotland is not so severe and, in fact, may not exist at all. However, a reference could be drawn to Dundee this season. It may be possible that one reason they are so far adrift this season is that it wasn’t until mid July that the club was promoted to the SPL, not giving them adequate time to prepare for a season in the top flight. That is merely conjecture though. The point is that a system that has potential to make the top flight more open than before also has the potential to make it as inaccessible as ever.
 

You could argue that there is a far greater financial impact from missing out on the top 8 in the top flight. It would mean missing out on a home game with the top clubs. As the league currently stands at the time of writing that would include missing out on a home game with Celtic, Aberdeen, Hibs and Dundee Utd. The largest away followings in the league.
 

Returning to that quote from Stewart Regan regarding “every single game is important”. This is simply not true. With no disrespect intended to the other 11 current SPL clubs, the league is a one horse race. It’s likely that after 22 games Celtic will have the league title all but sewn up, leaving a 14 game procession to the title. Don’t get me wrong, over the course of a season, in any league structure, Celtic would currently come out on top every time and of course this is not Formula 1, the point of the reconstruction is not to try and pin back Celtic to force a more competitive title race, I just despair that the top 8 is being sold as “8 teams challenging for the title” when in fact it’s anything but. Neil Doncaster states “What the model ensures is vibrancy and excitement at all stages of the season for clubs at all levels.“ I think even he must realise he is stretching the truth a bit there. The current league split in the SPL is no different, there is always a danger that a team is left in the bottom 6 with no real threat of relegation or a team in the top 6 with no shot at the title or even a European place perhaps. The difference there is that the league split only occupies 5 league games at the close of the season. Introducing a split after only 22 games has potential for some teams seasons to start winding down a lot earlier than expected and possibly resulting in a drop in attendances.
 

There are also suggestions the league may strangle any sort of positive thinking or experimentation. I’m speaking here about clubs experimenting with good attacking football and introduction some of their young talent to the team. In a league where one third of the teams could be relegated there may be a mentality amongst clubs that there is little room for error. In it’s worst form this could lead to negative, win-at-all-costs football and a reluctance to blood young talent. This would hinder the quality of the league and also the progression of young Scottish players.
 
Aside from the negative points regarding the system itself, I also have to pick up on Jim Traynor’s point regarding Sporting Integrity. Say what you like about some of the points Traynor made in his communication published on the Rangers website, but he makes a valid point about the timing of the introduction of this system and it’s impact on Sporting Integrity. By trying to have the new system in place for the start of next season, those in charge are effectively moving the goalposts smack bang in the middle of a game. Clubs chasing promotion and play-off places may now find that their endeavors have been meaningless. Playoffs between the 3rd and 2nd Division would surely be cancelled as both teams would occupy the bottom, 18 team league, next season regardless. It is a move that openly mocks any sporting integrity and is an insult to clubs currently competing in the SFL. Regardless, the financial incentives offered to these SFL clubs will more than likely force their hand and see them sign up for the SPL’s proposals.
 

Scottish football is in dire need of change, and it is heading straight for it. Stewart Regan has hailed it as a ”new dawn”, he may be right, but it’s not yet clear whether this new dawn will bring with it a red sky.

What are your thoughts on the proposed changes?